Inquiring minds are digging deep into a 266 page PDF called USA Inc. a basic summary of America’s financial statements.

It is loaded with stunning graphs and charts on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, TARP Bailouts, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, military spending, tax revenues, and various projections. Here are a few images, but please give the document a closer look when you have a few moments.

Click on any chart to see a sharper image.

Cash Flow

Expenses at a Glance

Unfunded Liabilities

Federal Spending as Percent of GDP

Note this mess started with the creation of the Fed

Growth in Entitlement Spending

Take a step back, and imagine what the founding fathers would think if they saw how our country’s finances have changed. From 1790 to 1930, government spending on average accounted for just 3% of American GDP. Today, government spending absorbs closer to 24% of GDP.

Spending + Interest vs. Revenues

By 2025, entitlements plus net interest payments will absorb all – yes, all – of USA Inc.’s revenue, per CBO.

Less than 15 years from now, in other words, USA Inc. – based on current forecasts for revenue and expenses – would have nothing left over to spend on defense, education, infrastructure, and R&D, which today account for only 32% of USA Inc. spending, down from 69% forty years ago.

This critical juncture is getting ever closer. Just ten years ago, the CBO thought federal revenue would support entitlement spending and interest payments until 2060 – 35 years beyond its current projection.

To 25 Countries in Defense Spending

Entitlement Spending by Household

Medicaid Underfunding

When Medicaid was created in 1965 to provide health insurance to low income Americans, 1 in 50 Americans received Medicaid, now 1 in 6 Americans receives Medicaid.

Healthcare Spending

Social Security Workers vs. Retirees

Social Security Dependents

GSE, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Expansion

If that is not a shocking state of affairs, what is? There are lot more charts and graphs in the PDF.

Source article Mish

Most pundits argue that the government needs to stem the tide of foreclosures–to avoid a flood of houses hitting the market all at once and, thereby crushing house prices. The government needs to do everything it can to stimulate the housing market, these folks say, or the renewed decline of the housing market will take the economy down with it.

Peter Schiff, president and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, disagrees.

Schiff believes that the government should exit the housing market completely and let prices fall to a natural level. In other words, says Schiff, the government should stop subsidizing mortgage rates with quantitative easing, stop using taxpayer-funded losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lubricate the mortgage market, and stop enacting things like the homebuyer tax credit to encourage people to buy houses.

But won’t this wallop the housing market? Won’t this cause many homeowners to go even deeper “underwater” and thus become more likely to just walk away. Won’t this lead to even more foreclosures?Yes, says Schiff. And that’s the point. This country needs more foreclosures, not fewer. We need to clear the market of “shadow inventory” consisting of houses owned by people who never should have bought them in the first place and return to fair pricing.

Artificially pumping buying online up house prices is not doing underwater homeowners any favors, Peter Schiff says. The problem is that, thanks to the crazy mortgages of the bubble years, today’s homeowners were often able to buy houses they can’t afford. And now these houses are millstones around their owners’ necks.Keeping house prices artificially high is also hurting new homebuyers, Schiff points out — by making it more expensive to buy (and forcing people to borrow more money to do it). In many cases, this punishes responsible people who have been saving up money to buy a house and rewards those who spent beyond their means.

Lastly, Schiff says, we need to do away with the cult of homeownership that has taken over the country in recent decades. There’s nothing wrong with renting, Schiff says. In most cases it’s far cheaper than owning. Until recently, Schiff observes, he was a renter himself.

(By the way, if you’re thinking about walking away from your mortgage, here are some things to consider)

Source article

From NY Fed President William Dudley: Regional Economy and Housing Update

[L]et’s consider the slow housing recovery. Housing market activity—both new construction and sales—remains depressed. On the construction side, total housing starts are running at just 600,000 units per year (seasonally-adjusted) in recent months. This is up from 530,000 units at the trough in the first quarter of 2009 but it is still extremely low by the standards of the last 50 years. In fact, the rate of new construction is so low that there is barely any net growth in the U.S. housing stock these days.

One reason why so little housing is being built is that many existing homes stand vacant. We estimate that there are roughly 3 million vacant housing units more than usual. And more vacancies are added daily as the foreclosure process moves homes from families to mortgage lenders. This stock of vacant homes will shrink when fewer are foreclosed upon and more of these homes are sold or rented out.

On the sales side, even though low mortgage interest rates and falling home prices have together boosted housing affordability to its highest level in 40 years, the current pace of sales is quite sluggish. Impediments to home sales include tight lending standards, a weak job market and continued uncertainty regarding the future path of home prices. The large decline in home prices that occurred between 2006 and 2008 is also important. This decline reduced the amount of equity that owners have in their homes, making it difficult for people to come up with the funds needed to “trade-up” and move into better homes.

In addition, the steep decline in home prices put many families at risk of mortgage delinquency and, ultimately, losing their homes to foreclosure. With lower home prices, many families now owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth. This means that they cannot refinance or sell their homes easily if they experience a financial crisis, such as a job loss or a serious illness. Recent developments on foreclosures have been mixed. While RealtyTrac reports that foreclosure completions in the United States exceeded 100,000 for the first time in September, it is important to remember that foreclosure is a lengthy process in most states. Our data indicate that, in recent quarters, borrowers are becoming less likely to fall behind on their mortgages, so fewer households are now entering the foreclosure process. At the same time, though, major lenders have acknowledged serious problems in the processes they have used to repossess homes and announced moratoria on new foreclosures. Taken together, these developments suggest that the situation in housing remains uncertain for the foreseeable future.

The Federal Reserve actively encourages efforts to find viable alternatives to foreclosure, like loan modifications, or deeds in lieu. We also support due process and access to legal counsel for homeowners facing foreclosure, for instance through legal aid programs. At the same time, it is important that foreclosures that properly comply with state and federal law can ultimately take place, as this is a necessary part of the adjustment that will eventually return us to more normal conditions in the housing market.

At present, the extent of the documentation problem and its wider ramifications are still uncertain. In conjunction with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Reserve is therefore seeking to establish the facts through a review of the foreclosure practices, governance and documentation at the major bank mortgage servicers. We want to ensure that the housing finance business is supported by robust back-office operations—for processing of new mortgages as well as foreclosures— so that buyers of homes and investors in mortgage securities have full confidence in the process. We are monitoring developments closely in order to evaluate any potential impact on the housing market, financial institutions and the overall economy.For those in the New York / New Jersey area, much of Dudley speech is on the regional economy and housing market. 

From NY Fed President William Dudley: Regional Economy and Housing Update

[L]et’s consider the slow housing recovery. Housing market activity—both new construction and sales—remains depressed. On the construction side, total housing starts are running at just 600,000 units per year (seasonally-adjusted) in recent months. This is up from 530,000 units at the trough in the first quarter of 2009 but it is still extremely low by the standards of the last 50 years. In fact, the rate of new construction is so low that there is barely any net growth in the U.S. housing stock these days.

One reason why so little housing is being built is that many existing homes stand vacant. We estimate that there are roughly 3 million vacant housing units more than usual. And more vacancies are added daily as the foreclosure process moves homes from families to mortgage lenders. This stock of vacant homes will shrink when fewer are foreclosed upon and more of these homes are sold or rented out.

On the sales side, even though low mortgage interest rates and falling home prices have together boosted housing affordability to its highest level in 40 years, the current pace of sales is quite sluggish. Impediments to home sales include tight lending standards, a weak job market and continued uncertainty regarding the future path of home prices. The large decline in home prices that occurred between 2006 and 2008 is also important. This decline reduced the amount of equity that owners have in their homes, making it difficult for people to come up with the funds needed to “trade-up” and move into better homes.

In addition, the steep decline in home prices put many families at risk of mortgage delinquency and, ultimately, losing their homes to foreclosure. With lower home prices, many families now owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth. This means that they cannot refinance or sell their homes easily if they experience a financial crisis, such as a job loss or a serious illness. Recent developments on foreclosures have been mixed. While RealtyTrac reports that foreclosure completions in the United States exceeded 100,000 for the first time in September, it is important to remember that foreclosure is a lengthy process in most states. Our data indicate that, in recent quarters, borrowers are becoming less likely to fall behind on their mortgages, so fewer households are now entering the foreclosure process. At the same time, though, major lenders have acknowledged serious problems in the processes they have used to repossess homes and announced moratoria on new foreclosures. Taken together, these developments suggest that the situation in housing remains uncertain for the foreseeable future.

The Federal Reserve actively encourages efforts to find viable alternatives to foreclosure, like loan modifications, or deeds in lieu. We also support due process and access to legal counsel for homeowners buy drugs online facing foreclosure, for instance through legal aid programs. At the same time, it is important that foreclosures that properly comply with state and federal law can ultimately take place, as this is a necessary part of the adjustment that will eventually return us to more normal conditions in the housing market.

At present, the extent of the documentation problem and its wider ramifications are still uncertain. In conjunction with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Reserve is therefore seeking to establish the facts through a review of the foreclosure practices, governance and documentation at the major bank mortgage servicers. We want to ensure that the housing finance business is supported by robust back-office operations—for processing of new mortgages as well as foreclosures— so that buyers of homes and investors in mortgage securities have full confidence in the process. We are monitoring developments closely in order to evaluate any potential impact on the housing market, financial institutions and the overall economy.For those in the New York / New Jersey area, much of Dudley speech is on the regional economy and housing market.

Source Article

Historically the best leading indicator for the economy (and employment) has been housing. I’ve been writing about this for years. For a great summary paper, see Professor Leamer’s presentation from the 2007 Jackson Hole Symposium: Housing and the Business Cycle

For housing as a leading indicator, I use Residential Investment (quarterly from the BEA’s GDP report), and monthly data on Housing Starts and New Home sales from the Census Bureau, and builder confidence from the NAHB.

Two key points:

Existing home sales is not a leading indicator (sales of existing homes does not add to the housing stock).

This time could be different – the recovery could be led by exports and technology – but I’ll stick with housing.So here is a review of the three monthly leading indicators:

Housing Starts

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Total housing starts were at 591 thousand (SAAR) in January, up 2.8% from the revised December rate, and up 24% from the all time record low in April 2009 of 479 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959). Total starts had rebounded to 590 thousand in June, and have moved mostly sideways for eight months.

Single-family starts were at 484 thousand (SAAR) in January, up 1.5% from the revised December rate, and 36% above the record low in January and February 2009 (357 thousand). Just like for total starts, single-family starts have been at about this level for eight months.

Housing starts are moving sideways …

Builder Confidence

This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

The housing market index (HMI) was at 17 in February. This is an increase from 15 in January.

The record low was 8 set buy doxycycline online in January 2009. This is still very low – and this is what I’ve expected – a long period of builder depression. The HMI has been in the 15 to 19 range since May 2009.

More moving sideways …

Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

New Home Sales

The Census Bureau reports This graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years.

New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 309 thousand. This is a record low and a sharp decrease from the 348 thousand rate in December.

And it would be generous to even call this “moving sideways”.

So these leading indicators suggest any growth will be sluggish and choppy.

Now some people might argue that housing starts and new home sales are about to increase sharply. Based on what? That seems unlikely with the large number of excess housing units (new and existing homes and rental units). See: Housing Stock and Flow

As I noted above, it might be different this time with exports and technology leading the way, but I’ll stick with housing as a business cycle indicator.

source article calculated risk

Ilene writes “Hi Mish, I thought you might find this interesting, and perhaps want to use some or all of it. I know my interviewee well, and his thoughts in this area have been consistently correct.”

With that backdrop here are a few excerpts from Interview with a Commercial Real Estate Developer about the CRE Industry.

Mr. Solomon (name changed) is a CRE veteran with 40 years of experience developing commercial real estate in 15 states and has kindly agreed to be interviewed about the current conditions in the CRE market.

Ilene: What are you seeing in the CRE market now?
Mr. Solomon: CRE is undergoing deleveraging with the rest of the economy, debts are being reduced or going into default. Large numbers of projects are not cash flowing and will have to be liquidated, or ownership will have to be transferred. Concurrently, there’s an oversupply caused by the same ill advised financing that led to the overbuilding.

Ilene: How far into the decline are we now?
Mr. Solomon: So far about 25%. A lot has been recognized. And it’s no longer a surprise. Some properties have already been foreclosed out. There are a lot of vacancies. I think a further substantial group of commercial properties will get foreclosed. I don’t see it leveling off for another few years because of the problems of contraction, debt, and oversupply. Oversupply in real estate doesn’t get worked off, the buildings have to be used. Less consumption and less business mean less demand. Creative financing, excessive easy money caused the oversupply, caused hyped up prices. Now there’s less demand, less employment, less consumption, and on top of that, the excess debt still has to be paid off – there’s more deleveraging coming. There are probably many years of value declines ahead.

Ilene: Do you think the recession is over?
Mr. Solomon: No, we will be in it for a number of years. Assuming the GDP is up in the short term, it doesn’t matter. It’s due to more debt expansion. The real world debt must eventually decline. It’s a government induced blimp that cannot go on, it’s not sustainable.

Ilene: Are there any areas where you would be building now?
Mr. Solomon: Regions will do better in the lower tax states that are less unionized, with less government regulation, for example Texas.

Ilene: I know many of your projects are in CA, how is that state doing?
Mr. Solomon: The California government is dysfunctional, too little revenue and too much expenditure. Compared to WA, there are more people, more speculation, more bureaucracies, and now more contraction. CA also has extra political risks, the state is bankrupt. The U.S. is also bankrupt. If there were no restrictions due to traveling and language, many people would be going elsewhere. All things being buy medications equal, I’d be building where opportunity is greatest, taxes are lower, and there’s less regulation. I’d be more apt to buy something in TX because the economy is stronger than in CA, there is less regulation, no income taxes and the budget is better balanced.

Ilene: Does it matter that we’re bankrupt?
Mr. Solomon: We seem to be functioning as though we’re not. There’s no question that only two trillion of revenue can’t service $100 trillion of debt. It’s pretty clear that there’s a major problem.

Ilene: In your business, would you be hiring people any time soon?
Mr. Solomon: No hiring. Due to the economy and health care issues, we’re not hiring anyone. Hiring is a liability, might be taking on a life-long obligation. We prefer to be firing now, decreasing the number of employees.

Source Article Mish’s Blog

Two years ago, almost everyone was discussing, and looking forward to, a tsunami of distressed assets which would be coming to market based upon the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the stresses it would exert on the credit markets in general. In September of 2008, when Lehman failed and Wall Street as we knew it was structurally transformed from an investment banking platform to one of bank holding companies, the “almost everyone” mentioned above was changed to “everyone”. But the tsunami has not arrived, not even close.

The fact that only a few distressed assets have been put in play is not because they aren’t out there. The pipeline is chock full of them.

Let’s use the New York City marketplace as an example. In the 2005-2007 period, there were $109 billion of investment sales in New York City. Based upon reductions in revenue (rent levels) across all product types including residential, office, retail and industrial and cap rate expansion, values have declined by 32%, on average, year to date. If we eliminate multifamily properties from this analysis, values have fallen from peak levels approximately 48%. Based upon these reductions, we estimate that, of the $109 billion buying medicine online spent on investment properties, $80 billion of that was spent on properties which now are in a negative equity position. This relates to about 6,000 properties.

If we include properties which were refinanced during the 2005-2007 period, the number of properties having negative equity jumps to 15,000. We estimate that there is about $165 billion in debt on these properties and, based upon today’s underwriting standards, there should only be about $65 billion in debt on them. This means that in order to have a conservatively leveraged marketplace, we would need to extract $100 billion in debt.

Clearly, this will not happen. Many investors have the ability to feed their properties and, based upon a desire to own them on a long-term basis, will do so. Other transactions will be worked out utilizing any of our favorite terms which have become commonplace in today’s vernacular including, “extend and pretend”, “delay and pray”, “a rolling loan gathers no loss” or “kicking the can down the road”. We do believe, however, that $30 to $40 billion will ultimately be extracted from the market in the form of losses.

So where are those distressed assets now? Some have not come to the market because they aren’t even in default yet due to mortgages which are still in interest only periods or are operating on an interest reserve set up by the lender when the loan was originated. Others have loans floating over 30-day LIBOR which closed on friday at 23 basis points (3-month LIBOR is only at 26 basis points). At 150 over LIBOR, the rate being paid on those loans would only be 1.73% and they can cash flow at those levels of debt service. While some properties are fundamentally under water, they are not yet in default, but likely will be when these advantageous terms expire.

Other distressed assets haven’t come to market because everything that has happened legislatively has allowed lenders to hide bad assets on their balance sheets. The FASB mark-to-market accounting rules have been modified to allow loss avoidance. Similarly, bank regulators will now allow lenders to hold a loan on their balance sheet at 100 even if they know that the underlying collateral for that loan is only worth 60. Additionally, modifications to the REMIC regulations have made it easier for CMBS loans to be kicked down the street.

Any of these delaying tactics will only be beneficial if appreciation is anticipated in the short-run. Given the massive deleveraging the market must experience and unemployment rates which are anticipated to remain elevated for at least another year to 18 months, we do not see support for the short-run appreciation argument.

We really don’t understand the reluctance of lenders to deal with these problem properties. Many of those that are in default are currently in the foreclosure process. This is a frustrating process, especially in New York, as it can take years to get through the process and obtain the title to the collateral. Many borrowers further complicate things by going into bankruptcy, which, based upon backlogs in the bankruptcy courts, adds additional time to the process.

It is very difficult to say this without sounding completely self-serving ( After all, I do sell buildings and notes for a living) but, if a lender wants out of a bad deal, selling a note today is likely to lead to a better recovery than waiting a year or two.

We believe this because the lack of product on the market toady has created a dynamic in which many investors are fighting over relatively few opportunities. Because of this, particularly on our income producing properties for sale, we are generally receiving 25 to 35 offers for each. Furthermore, on each note we have sold this year, we have received over 50 offers. This is due to the fact that buyers today would rather purchase from a lender than a private seller, believing they will get a better deal. “Believing” is the key word in the last sentence.

Due to the excessive demand for distressed assets, buyers are currently paying aggressive prices for anything banks are selling.  In many cases this year, we have obtained prices for notes that, we believe, are at or very near the value of the underlying collateral.

Some lenders are taking advantage of these dynamics to rid their balance sheets of underwater loans and are using the proceeds to make good loans today. Consider that two years ago, bank spreads, based upon all of the competition to put money out, were as low as 30 or 40 basis points. Those spreads can be 300-400 over corresponding treasuries today. Additionally, today’s loans have less risk associated with them as, rather than a loan to value ratio of 75%-85%, LTVs today are generally in the 60%-65% range. These loans are also significantly less on a price per square foot basis than they were two years ago.

If your business was 10 times as profitable as it used to be and there was much less risk involved, wouldn’t you be trying to do as much business as you could?

“Out with the bad, in with the good”, should be the mantra of lenders today. Until now, this has been slow to develop. To illustrate this, consider the following very telling statistics: Massey Knakal is asked by potential sellers to provide opinion of value reports and provide an explanation of our marketing program and we exclusively list about 31% of the properties that we are asked to analyze. It is just like a batting average in baseball, if we are hitting .300, we feel pretty good. With lenders and special servicers we are working with, we have completed just over 1,000 valuations and have exclusively listed just 12 properties/notes. That is a batting average of just .012. Many of these opportunities have simply not come to the market in any form. Perhaps the lender/servicer is waiting to see what the future will bring; perhaps they are simply making deals with the borrowers.

We have, however, seen this freeze thawing slightly as 2009 comes to a close. We expect to be coming to market with several distressed notes from lenders and special servicers right after the holidays and remain optimistic that we will be able to continue to achieve pricing at levels where the recovery versus collateral value is significant. There are also some foreclosures which should be concluding shortly which will lead to some REO which should be placed on the market shortly thereafter.

Let’s hope that 2010 sees a significant rise in these opportunities coming to market. It appears that the year will, at least, start out that way.

Mr. Knakal is the Chairman and Founding Partner of Massey Knakal Realty Services in New York City and has brokered the sale of over 1,000 properties in his career.

Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)

Source Article www.globest.com

When housing prices hit bottom, they will languish near those low levels for years to come. So don’t be in a rush to buy.

Mortgage interest rates are at a 50-year low. Last month, Congress extended a tax credit for home buyers through April. The economy is beginning to crawl out of what by some measures is the deepest recession since the 1930s. One survey already shows house prices beginning to rise.

So isn’t it time to buy a home? Kiplinger’s certainly thinks so. But if I were in the market for a new home, I would wait. Housing prices typically don’t rebound quickly after a bust; instead, they level out and stay near that low base line for years.

I don’t see why this time should be different. True, prices seem as though they can’t drop further, and in some areas they even show signs of an upturn. But if prices won’t be taking off and might well resume their decline, you lose nothing but a little time by waiting to buy.

Of course, if you’re buying out of necessity — because you’re moving to a new area and need to sell your old house and buy a new one, for example — there’s no need to wait. But if you’re planning to buy your first house, if you want to move to a larger home, or especially if you’re buying a house for investment purposes, take your time.

The housing picture is complex — and frightening. House prices have plunged 30%, on average, from their 2006 peak. But from 2000 to 2006, average prices nearly doubled. That means average house prices are still almost 40% higher than they were a decade ago. Forty percent is a healthy increase — even in a robust economy.

And the economy, of course, is anything but robust. A fragile recovery seems to have begun last summer, but unemployment stands at 10.2% and is likely to rise even higher. It may not begin to fall substantially until late next year. Companies were quick to lay off workers, but they are being slow to hire.

As bad as the overall economy is, residential real estate is in much worse shape. About seven million households — or 12.5% of all homeowners — either are behind on their mortgages by 30 days or more or are in foreclosure. It’s hard to make the house payment if you’re unemployed. Millions of houses already stand empty — victims of the subprime loans that sparked the Great Recession. Almost a quarter of homeowners owe order drugs online more on their mortgages than their houses are worth.

The history of busts.

Nationally, housing prices haven’t declined from one calendar year to the next since accurate record keeping began in 1968. But in 2005, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. identified 21 regional housing busts since 1968. (The FDIC defined a bust as a decline of 15% over five years.)

Busts occurred in Texas when oil prices sank in the mid 1980s, in Southern California in the early 1990s amid defense-industry cutbacks, and in much of the Northeast corridor in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The 21 busts happened for varying reasons, and each unfolded differently. But they all shared one common trait: A nasty regional recession triggered each one.

Many (but not all) busts followed booms — just as our national housing crash followed an unprecedented boom.

Most (but not all) of the regional busts tended to be painfully protracted affairs. Why? Because unless you’re forced out, most of us would rather stay in a house, pay the mortgage and hope for an eventual upturn rather than sell and realize our losses quickly. That means home prices don’t go down all at once; they tend to slide agonizingly slowly on infrequent sales.

True, the tax credits and low mortgage rates make buying a house tempting today. But if you buy into a slumping housing market, those incentives won’t add up to much. So while the worst of the real estate decline is surely behind us, the odds are strong that you’ll be able to buy later at the same price — or a lower one.

Source Article

Amid the jobless recovery, some landlords are showering flat-screen TVs, cash, rent cuts and other incentives on tenants to encourage them to renew their apartment leases and thus avoid the expense of filling empty units.

View Full Image

UDRThe poor apartment-rental market has slowed new construction. Above, The Residences at Stadium Village in Surprise, Ariz., developed by UDR.

The rise in unemployment has prompted tenants to seek roommates, move home or trade down to cheaper units. In the third quarter, the national apartment-vacancy rate hit 7.8%, a 23-year high, according to Reis Inc., which tracks vacancies and rents in the top 79 markets.

“Many companies are doing whatever they can to keep units occupied, especially heading into the seasonally slower leasing period,” said Paula Poskon, an analyst with Robert W. Baird & Co.

The trends are taking a toll on the bottom line. Apartment Investment & Management Co., which owns and operates roughly 150,000 units nationwide, reported Friday that its funds from operations, a key REIT metric, fell to 19 cents a share from 60 cents a year earlier. UDR Inc., which has about 45,000 units on the West Coast and in Washington, D.C., reported earlier this month that its funds from operations dropped 42% to 19 cents.

“We do need job growth in order for our business to prosper,” said David Neithercut, chief executive of Equity Residential, the country’s largest apartment REIT by market capitalization. “I think 2010 will be another year of doing the best we can.”

Some of the large REITs were able to keep their occupancies up. UDR managed to increase occupancy to 95.6% from 95% a year earlier. Colonial Properties Trust, which operates 35,000 Sunbelt apartments, said its third-quarter occupancy fell to 94.4% from 96%a year earlier.

But landlords attracted and retained tenants by offering incentives and rent cuts. Equity Residential said new tenants in the third quarter paid 9% to 10% less rent than the previous residents. AvalonBay Communities Inc., an upscale operator, said its decline was about the same.

Owners buy prescription drugs on line are focusing on keeping existing tenants because when apartments become vacated they can sit empty for months and often require marketing, painting, brokerage commissions and other expenses to attract new tenants. Denver-based UDR is offering renewing tenants a flat-screen TV, new carpet, kitchen upgrade or, $300 in cash. The money is the most popular choice, said Chief Executive Thomas Toomey,

Mr. Neithercut said Equity Residential doesn’t initially offer rent cuts to existing tenants to persuade them to renew. But if the tenant plays hardball, the company asks: “What can we do to keep you?” he said.

One problem for landlords is that existing tenants can easily check the Web to see what deals new tenants are being offered. And new tenants are getting incentives like a waived pet deposit or two months’ free rent.

Some landlords have also become more open-minded about tenants with credit issues involving home foreclosures. In the past, a foreclosure on a credit record could have meant an automatic denial. Now such blemishes are so commonplace that the stigma is easing. Equity Residential looks for reasonable credit history “outside of a problem that they’ve had with a single-family home,” Mr. Neithercut said.

Another sign of the times: In New York City, landlords are paying broker fees. Typically in New York, which has traditionally been a tight rental market, tenants have to pay fees as high as 15% of a year’s rent. But so far this year, Equity Residential has paid about $1.5 million in such commissions.

Apartment landlords say that one benefit of the bad market is that it has practically halted new construction. New completions are expected to be 98,000 next year and 109,000 in 2011, compared with 188,000 last year and 204,000 this year, according to Green Street Advisors Inc.

But when loss rates are taken into account—the removal of units because of obsolescence—the actual addition will be immaterial. That means that when the economy rebounds, the supply will be tight, increasing landlord profits.

“I have utmost confidence in our ability to be successful when we get to there,” said Mr. Neithercut. “I just don’t know how far away ‘there’ is.”

Source article http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704746304574506040208385548.html

Home prices continued to decline across the nation as sales of heavily discounted foreclosed properties weighed down the market.

Median prices of existing homes fell in 123 of 153 metropolitan areas during the third quarter compared with a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. The national median price was $177,900, down 11.2% from the third quarter of 2008.

Distressed sales — mainly foreclosures and short sales — accounted for 30% of transactions in the third quarter, according to the NAR, which pulled down average prices because foreclosed homes sell at steep discounts. Short sales are transactions in which at-risk borrowers sell their homes for less than the loan amount, with the lender’s approval.

Metropolitan areas in Florida and Nevada continued to see the most severe price declines. In the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area, median prices were down 40% during the third quarter from a year earlier, to $98,000. In Las Vegas, median prices were down 34.5% in the third quarter to $138,500. In 2006, median prices were $268,200 in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area and $317,400 in the Las Vegas area.

Still, home sales rose 11.4% nationwide to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.3 million units during the third quarter, up from 4.76 million units in the second quarter.

See List of Home Prices

• See full chart of home prices in 153 metro areas.

Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, attributed rising sales to the federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time home buyers. “We can’t underestimate just how powerful a catalyst the first-time home buyer tax credit has been for the housing sector,” he said in statement.

President Barack Obama signed a bill last week extending and expanding the federal tax credit to include buyers with higher incomes and those who are existing homeowners.

Mr. Yun said that while foreclosures will continue to depress the market, “rising sales from the expanded tax credit should buy drugs on line stabilize home prices by next spring.”

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Fannie Mae will allow homeowners facing foreclosure to stay in their homes and rent them for as long as a year, as part of the government’s latest effort to help troubled borrowers, while keeping more foreclosed properties from hitting the housing market.

The “Deed for Lease” Program lets borrowers who don’t qualify for loan modifications transfer their property to Fannie Mae in exchange for a lease. Borrowers-turned-tenants will pay market rents, which in most cases are lower than the cost of mortgage payments, and might be offered extensions when their leases expire.

Fannie Mae wouldn’t say in its Thursday announcement how many homeowners it expects would take advantage of the program. The company acquired 57,000 properties through foreclosure during the first half of the year.

Borrowers have to demonstrate they can’t afford their current mortgage, but can pay the rent. The borrower’s mortgage servicer has to show the borrower didn’t qualify for a loan modification.

“If you keep more people in their homes, it’s better for the community. It’s better for the financial institutions that own those homes,” said Jay Ryan, vice president of equity investments at Fannie Mae. “Hopefully, less foreclosure product on the market will help stabilize those communities.”

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Associated PressA foreclosure sign sits outside a home for sale in Phoenix.

The initiative also would allow Fannie to keep inventory off already-saturated housing markets, and amounts to a bet the housing market would be stronger one year from now.

“I’m sure Fannie is hoping that when they sell the properties, the values will be higher,” said David Berson, chief economist for PMI Group Inc., a mortgage insurer. “A year from now, we should be a year further into the economic recovery, and housing demand will be stronger….That will allow you to release homes that have been foreclosed upon but not put on the market.”

The program could also help Fannie preserve the value of its nonperforming assets, because occupied homes are likely to hold up better than vacant homes, and rents would provide some income before the properties are sold. “If they can keep the property occupied and have at least some positive cash flow, that may end up being less worse than going the route of kicking them out and having a vacant home,” said Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist based in Leesburg, Va.

Housing advocates and some investors have long called for less disruptive alternatives to foreclosure. The program would provide a “big step” towards giving families housing security, said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic Policy and Research. The rental programs join a series of other initiatives designed to help borrowers who might not qualify for a loan modification.

Fannie will use a professional management company to handle maintenance, and properties that are sold during the lease period will include an assignment of the lease to the new owner.

The move by Fannie follows a similar effort by Freddie Mac that began offering month-to-month leases to owner-occupants who had lost their homes to foreclosure. The Fannie Mae program differs in one important respect: Fannie’s foreclosed homes won’t be listed for sale. In February, both companies began allowing tenants whose landlords had lost their properties to foreclosure to sign month-to-month leases.

So far, approximately two-thirds of owner-occupants who have been offered monthly leases by Freddie Mac have taken them, and the breakdown of owner-occupants to tenants who have rented under the program is roughly 2-to-1.

Freddie Mac says it is considering whether to extend longer-term leases to some troubled homeowners. “We’re looking into our options, because there are certain markets where there’s just so much inventory on the market,” said Ingrid Beckles, senior vice president of default asset management at Freddie Mac.

In recent months, some industry analysts have been puzzled over why more homes haven’t been put up for sale as the rate of borrowers who defaulted climbed higher. Well-intentioned efforts to keep families in their homes have led to delays that some analysts believe are prolonging the mortgage crisis by creating a “shadow” inventory of pent-up supply that will ultimately hit the market.

Separately, Fannie Mae said Thursday it would need an additional $15 billion from the U.S. Treasury after it posted an $18.9 billion net loss for the third quarter, as loans made to prime borrowers deteriorated at a faster clip. That infusion would bring the total cost so far of Fannie’s bailout to $61 billion.

In the past year, the government has invested more than $110 billion in Fannie and Freddie, and it has pledged to invest as much as $200 billion in each company to keep them afloat.

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