Signup for our Newsletter

Signup for our newsletter and get news and updates about Real Estate investments and the Real Estate Market.
Name:
Email:

Tags

Recent Articles

Proposed Tax Change for Real Estate Partnerships Has Investors Seeing Red

Jan 8, 2010 | No Comments | Sean Mills

We knew it was coming it was just a matter of time as most states are bankrupt and looking to fill the holes one way or another.  I think in California we will see an amendment to the old Howard Jarvis Prop 13 legislation seperating residential from commercial in regards to going after an increased [...]

We knew it was coming it was just a matter of time as most states are bankrupt and looking to fill the holes one way or another.  I think in California we will see an amendment to the old Howard Jarvis Prop 13 legislation seperating residential from commercial in regards to going after an increased supplemental tax.  As you know prop 13 passed in the late 1970’s put a maximum supplemental tax of 2% annually on real estate in California thereby capping the amount the government could receive from property taxes.  Other states have left residential alone due to the large public outcry and have gone after the easier pickings of commercial real estate, case in point Iowa.  I will go a little farther and to say not just single family residences will be left alone but 1-4 unit properties.  Only time will tell.-Sean

Several major commercial real estate groups are fighting a proposed federal tax provision that they say would have a devastating effect on real estate investment partnerships.

Read More » »

2010 and new opportunities with all sectors of investing

Jan 8, 2010 | No Comments | Sean Mills

So here we are again at a new year and as unusual it is hard not to look forward with the hopes of a fresh start, new opportunities or renewed sense of dedication to the tasks at hand.  It is not my intent to chalk this article up to the usual scores of articles/magazines we [...]

So here we are again at a new year and as unusual it is hard not to look forward with the hopes of a fresh start, new opportunities or renewed sense of dedication to the tasks at hand.  It is not my intent to chalk this article up to the usual scores of articles/magazines we all can see on the newsstands when it comes to the New Year.  Yet we must not forget the real intent of these articles and that is to capitalize of the new and renewed drive and opportunities we all have. 

Part of the renewed dedication should be set towards inspecting how we arrived at this place and how to improve the past performance.  If you are receiving this newsletter it is because you have investment properties and you have Web Laundry Services.  You have made the right chose so far and you have capitalized on the opportunities presented to you, congratulations.  This next business cycle for investment properties and real estate in general will make or break a lot of people who seemed bullet proof at first glance.  Make sure you are on the right side of the line when the dust settles and it is with that hope this article is written.

Evaluation of your investments would fall in line with all these tasks as would evaluation of your performance with managing your asset.  Take another look at your Profit and Loss statements and your rent roll with your vacancy rates.  How much time have you spent or your management company spent on your building and the true return for your asset.  Drive the neighborhood where your investment is and take a look at the surrounding buildings?  Are they run down, is your building run down?  Are there a lot of for rent signs or none at all?  Due your due diligence call some of the for rent signs and do your own rent survey to find out if you are in line with rents/amenities or if you have missed the mark.  Evaluation of business relationships for unity of purpose and for their dedication to your goals should also be included in your analysis.

Today, more than ever, there are a multitude of tools and services available at your finger tips to assist you with your work.  It is quite easy to find everything on line from rent comps to current lending rates to the local apartment owners’ association to vendors who specialize in a multitude of helpful services.  Look at the economic forecast, both locally and nationally, what is the unemployment rate in your area and can your investment be effected dramatically by this rate?  Is it an influencing factor for your tenant base?  The world is still pretty big but the internet has leveled the playing field for some and exploited for others the opportunities available. 

In summary, capitalize on your strengths and down play your weaknesses or minimize them all together if not now when?  There will be scores of opportunities in the next 3 to 5 years please don’t get left behind or eliminated.  Remember cash is king when it comes to the best opportunities or with REO properties.  Best of luck and happy investing.-Sean

House Flipping Makes a Comeback

Dec 9, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Four years after the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble, flipping homes is back in fashion.
Jon Mirmelli, a Phoenix real-estate investor, learned late in the morning of Sept. 28 that a never-occupied custom house on the northern fringes of this Phoenix suburb was going up for auction around noon the same day. [...]

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Four years after the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble, flipping homes is back in fashion.

Jon Mirmelli, a Phoenix real-estate investor, learned late in the morning of Sept. 28 that a never-occupied custom house on the northern fringes of this Phoenix suburb was going up for auction around noon the same day. The six-bedroom home, built on a three-acre desert plot, has a kitchen with two dishwashers, four ovens, “antibacterial” copper sinks, and a master “spa” bathroom with space for a flat-screen TV visible from the tub.

The minimum bid, as set by a unit of Citigroup Inc., which had a $1.3 million mortgage on the home, was $379,900. After several minutes of bidding among investors and their representatives, some wearing shorts and flip-flops, Mr. Mirmelli won the home for $486,300. A week later, he agreed to sell it for $690,000 to a woman who moved in this month.

During the housing boom, millions of Americans tried to make money by buying and then quickly reselling new houses and condominiums. That kind of flipping stopped several years ago as home sales stalled amid a surge in foreclosures and curtailed lending.

Now, a different breed of flipper is proliferating: one who seeks bargains at foreclosure auctions. Unlike the boom-time flippers, the latest generation needs cold cash, lots of local-market knowledge and strong nerves.

Investors compete mostly with other full-time professionals who monitor foreclosure auctions at county courthouses across the country. The bidders often haven’t had a chance to inspect the property or determine whether it’s occupied by tenants, who may be hard to evict.

Sometimes “you have half an hour to make a half-million-dollar decision,” says Damon Lines, an executive at PostedProperties.com, a Phoenix firm that provides information to foreclosure investors and bids on their behalf. “That’s something most people can’t or aren’t willing to do.”

In the states where home prices have fallen the most, many local real-estate markets are dominated by foreclosed property, dragging down the value of neighboring homes. Barclays Capital estimates that banks and mortgage investors have 639,000 foreclosed homes for sale across the U.S., largely concentrated in Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada. That’s equivalent to more than 10% of expected U.S. home sales this year.

Flippers swoop in at public auctions of foreclosed homes, known as trustee or sheriff sales. In many states, the lender sets the minimum bid, and takes possession of the property only if no one bids more. In the past, the minimum generally was about equal to the mortgage balance due. But in today’s market, in which many home values have dropped far below the loan balance, lenders wouldn’t attract investors if they set the minimum at that level.

So lenders, or the loan-servicing firms that represent banks and investors, are increasingly likely to set the minimum much lower. Their goal is to tempt others to buy the house and spare banks the headaches and costs that come with taking possession.

Sean O’Toole, chief executive officer of ForeclosureRadar.com, a research firm, estimates that in November about 21% of homes sold in trustee sales in California went to investors rather than to a foreclosing lender, up from 6% a year earlier. The trend is similar in some other areas with high foreclosure rates, including Phoenix and Miami.

The advantage of such an outcome for the bank is that it gets money for the property right away, even if it isn’t enough to cover the loan balance due. The bank doesn’t need to make repairs to the home, cover the taxes and insurance, or pay real-estate-agent commissions.

[Letting Go]

The risk for banks is that if they set the minimum bid too low, the home might end up selling for much less than they could reap if they took ownership of it and sold it themselves. But with some 7.5 million U.S. households behind on their mortgage payments or in foreclosure, many lenders are overwhelmed. They’re negotiating with distressed borrowers and figuring out how to sell the growing supply of foreclosed homes.

“The banks are so screwed up,” says Mr. Mirmelli, the Phoenix investor, that they don’t always have a clear idea of the value of the property they are foreclosing on.

To help them set the minimum bid, banks often consult with local real-estate agents and use software that estimates housing values. American Home Mortgage Servicing Inc., which collects payments and handles foreclosures on behalf of banks and loan investors, uses a formula designed to “achieve a fair value for the property and induce third-party bidders,” says Christine Sullivan, a spokeswoman for the Coppell, Texas-based firm.

American Home starts with a broker’s estimate and subtracts the expected costs of taking ownership of the house and selling it. The minimum bid is above the net proceeds American Homes believes it could get by acquiring and selling the property itself, she says.

Outside the Maricopa County court building in downtown Phoenix, trustees, companies that are hired to handle foreclosure auctions, offer as many as 600 or 700 houses every weekday. A typical auction lasts only a few minutes. On a recent afternoon, a few dozen bidders and onlookers were clustered around a trustee employee seated on a lawn chair conducting auctions. He kept track of the bids on a laptop computer perched on one knee.

Many of the bidders are regulars at the sale, bidding for themselves or on behalf of investor clients. “We’re all kind of like a little dysfunctional family,” says Steve Mutsaers, a representative of PostedProperties, who was wearing black sunglasses, a white polo shirt and gray plaid shorts. During the summer, Mr. Mutsaers says, he wears a sombrero to cope with temperatures well above 100 degrees.

People who attend trustee sales here and in other foreclosure hot spots around the nation say the auctions have recently been attracting more bidders. “Properties are getting bid up,” says Hal Feinberg, a Phoenix property investor. “You can still get good deals, but you’ve got to be more patient than you were a year ago.” He and other investors in the Phoenix area say they have been flipping a lot of the homes they buy to Canadians taking advantage of a weak U.S. dollar.

Buying at these auctions is perilous. There are no public viewings, so bidders often can’t know how much damage may have been done inside a house by occupants facing foreclosure. “We’ve seen everything,” says Doug Hopkins, chief executive of PostedProperties. “We’ve seen people pour concrete down the toilets.” Unless they’ve done their homework, bidders also don’t always know whether they’re buying a home subject to a lien from another lender, which can happen in cases where the borrower took out more than one home loan.

Joshua Lott for The Wall Street JournalInvestors in Phoenix gather at one of the 700 auctions that take place here each weekday.

Because of such complexities, many of the bidders are people with experience in the property business. Jon Goodman, a real-estate lawyer in Boulder, Colo., for example, has bought 19 properties so far this year with other investors and sold 11 of them.

In February, the group won an auction for a home in Commerce City, Colo., near Denver, by bidding $142,000. Only afterwards did they discover that the previous owners had stripped the house of a toilet, much of the carpeting and a kitchen range. They replaced the missing items and made other minor improvements, eventually selling the house in May for $209,000. (The loan balance on the house had been $265,663.)

Mr. Goodman says their expenses came to about $24,000, including about $8,000 for real-estate commissions. That left a pretax profit of about $43,000.

The foreclosure auction was handled by American Home Mortgage Servicing. Ms. Sullivan, the spokeswoman for American Home, says the firm believes it didn’t underprice the home and it received “a fair, market-value price for the property.”

In Miami, a group of investors led by Oded M. Kaiser recently bought a condo at auction for $170,000. Two weeks later, they flipped it for $330,000. The loan balance was about $466,000. A spokeswoman for Litton Loan Servicing, which handled the sale on behalf of mortgage investors, declined to comment.

Not all flippers come out on top. Mr. Goodman says one of his legal clients, bidding on his own, unwittingly bought a house that was still subject to a first-lien mortgage. To gain control of the property, the client had to pay off the first mortgage. As a result, says Mr. Goodman, the client, who declined to be named, is likely to have at least a small loss on the deal.

Last summer, Phoenix investor Greg Thielen bought a home at an auction and later found that the former owner had stripped out air-conditioning units, granite countertops and kitchen cabinets, and uprooted palm trees from the lawn. Repair costs came to about $30,000, leaving Mr. Thielen with a small loss on the purchase. “It’s not as easy as people think,” says Mr. Thielen.

James R. Hagerty/The Wall Street JournalInvestor Jon Mirmelli in the kitchen of the Scottsdale home he flipped.

The Scottsdale property bought by Mr. Mirmelli was supposed to be the dream home for Brad and Michelle McCaughey and their three children. Mr. McCaughey, who grew up in Ann Arbor, Mich., was a minor-league hockey player and coach after graduating from the University of Michigan. About nine years ago, having moved to Phoenix, he says he discovered “a passion for real estate.” He became a real-estate agent and began investing with his father and brothers-in-law in rental properties. Soon they had a dozen homes.

In 2005, Mr. McCaughey and his wife paid about $500,000 for three acres of desert land and began building a home. By the time the house was nearing completion in 2008, the family rental-property business was in trouble because financing and other costs were exceeding their income.

The McCaugheys started selling their rental properties and put their own house on the market. They hoped to avert a foreclosure by getting Citigroup to accept a short sale, in which a home is sold for less than the loan balance due. Before they could find a buyer, though, Citigroup foreclosed on the home, and it went up for auction at the Maricopa County Courthouse this past September.

Citigroup initially set the minimum bid at auction at $1.3 million, far more than the market value, given comparable sales in the neighborhood. Then, on the morning of the sale, Citigroup lowered that minimum to $379,900. PostedProperties, which monitors Web sites for such price changes, sent out an email on the opportunity to Mr. Mirmelli.

Mr. Mirmelli has his iPhone set up so he can call up the address of a home due to be auctioned, see a map of the neighborhood with a tap of his finger and then see panoramic photos of the street with another tap. While he researched the home, one of his partners drove out to see the exterior and make sure there were no occupants. A PostedProperties employee bid on their behalf and won the house for $486,300, a sum that then went through the trustee to Citigroup.

After expenses of about $54,000, including real-estate commissions and minor repairs, Mr. Mirmelli and his partners expect a profit of about $150,000 on the flip. “It turned out to be a very good return,” he says.

A spokesman for Citigroup declined to comment on the transaction.

The McCaugheys, who formerly owned the house, are now renting a smaller home. Mr. McCaughey now works for a telecommunications service and is thinking about going back into hockey-related work.

Over a bowl of soup at a Paradise Bakery & Café in Glendale, a suburb of Phoenix, Mr. McCaughey says he sees a lot of real-estate bargains now and may jump back into the market at some point. As for the losses he’s taken on his former holdings, he says: “It is what it is. You deal with it.”

Source article www.wsjonline.com

Las Vegas Home Prices Fall 34% on Foreclosure Sales (Update1)

Dec 2, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

The droves of investors and speculators have descended on Las Vegas because, according to the National Association of Realtors, now is the perfect time to buy.  You first…-Sean
Source Article Bloomberg.
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) — Las Vegas home prices fell 34 percent in October from a year-earlier as foreclosed properties accounted for two-thirds of sales, reducing the [...]

The droves of investors and speculators have descended on Las Vegas because, according to the National Association of Realtors, now is the perfect time to buy.  You first…-Sean

Source Article Bloomberg.

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) — Las Vegas home prices fell 34 percent in October from a year-earlier as foreclosed properties accounted for two-thirds of sales, reducing the value of single- family houses and condominiums, MDA DataQuick said today.

The median price paid for all new and re-sold houses and condos in the Las Vegas metropolitan area fell to $130,000 in October from $196,000 a year earlier, the San Diego-based real estate research company said today in a statement. The price has been at or close to $130,000 since July and hasn’t fallen below that level since April 1999, when it was $129,000.

Homes that had been foreclosed on in the previous 12 months rose to 67 percent of resales in October, from 65 percent a year earlier, MDA DataQuick said. It was the highest foreclosure rate that month among metropolitan areas with populations of 200,000 or more, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

A total of 5,068 new and resale houses and condominiums were sold in the Las Vegas-Paradise metropolitan, an increase of 1.1 percent from September and 22 percent from a year earlier, MDA DataQuick said. Of those, 485 were newly built, down 34 percent from a year earlier.

“Builders can’t compete with discounted foreclosure resales,” MDA DataQuick said.

The research company is a unit of Richmond, British Columbia-based MacDonald, Dettwiler & Associates Ltd. It compiles surveys using county records and supplies real estate information to customers including public agencies, lenders and title companies.

Negative Equity Report for Q3

Nov 25, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

Here is the Q3 negative equity report from First American CoreLogic mentioned last night. From the report:
Negative equity, often referred to as “underwater” or “upside down,” means that borrowers owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth.
Data Highlights
Nearly 10.7 million, or 23 percent, of all residential properties with mortgages were in negative equity [...]

Here is the Q3 negative equity report from First American CoreLogic mentioned last night. From the report:

Negative equity, often referred to as “underwater” or “upside down,” means that borrowers owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth.

Data Highlights

  • Nearly 10.7 million, or 23 percent, of all residential properties with mortgages were in negative equity as of September, 2009. An additional 2.3 million mortgages were approaching negative equity, meaning they had less than five percent equity. Together negative equity and near negative equity mortgages account for nearly 28 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide.
  • The distribution of negative equity is heavily concentrated in five states: Nevada (65 percent), which had the highest percentage negative equity, followed by Arizona (48 percent), Florida (45 percent), Michigan (37 percent) and California (35 percent). Among the top five states, the average negative equity share was 40 percent, compared to 14 percent for the remaining states. In numerical terms, California (2.4 million) and Florida (2.0 million) had the largest number of negative equity mortgages accounting for 4.4 million or 42 percent of all negative equity loans

    Read More » »

  • MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease

    Oct 28, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

    This is no “news” to any of my friends in the business but some how it is to a lot of other people.  2009 is a time to survive and get through it not to kill it with record business.-Sean
    (Calculated Risk) The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease
    The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application [...]

    This is no “news” to any of my friends in the business but some how it is to a lot of other people.  2009 is a time to survive and get through it not to kill it with record business.-Sean

    (Calculated Risk) The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease

    The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. …

    The Refinance Index decreased 16.2 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier.

    The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.04 percent from 5.07 percent, with points increasing to 1.25 from 1.13 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

    The purchase index is off almost 17% over the last 3 weeks, and the refinance index is off about 30%.

    It appears the post home buyer tax credit slump has started, although apparently the tax credit will be extended and the eligibility expanded – so the slump might be delayed …

    MBA Purchase Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

    This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 2002.

    The Purchase index declined to 254.9, and the 4-week moving average declined to 280.

    Note: The increase in 2007 was due to the method used to construct the index: a combination of lender failures, and borrowers filing multiple applications pushed up the index in 2007, even though activity was actually declining. 

    The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease

    The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. …

    The Refinance Index decreased 16.2 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier.

    The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.04 percent from 5.07 percent, with points increasing to 1.25 from 1.13 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

    The purchase index is off almost 17% over the last 3 weeks, and the refinance index is off about 30%.

    It appears the post home buyer tax credit slump has started, although apparently the tax credit will be extended and the eligibility expanded – so the slump might be delayed …

    MBA Purchase Index Click on graph for larger image in new window.

    This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 2002.

    The Purchase index declined to 254.9, and the 4-week moving average declined to 280.

    Note: The increase in 2007 was due to the method used to construct the index: a combination of lender failures, and borrowers filing multiple applications pushed up the index in 2007, even though activity was actually declining.

    Commercial Real Estate Musical Chairs, With Chairs Added Each Round

    Oct 16, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

    Finally some CRE news unfortunately it is not the good news we could all use.-Sean
    Commercial real estate vacancies hit nearly 25% in Phoenix Valley area. Scottsdale and Southeast Valley vacancies are even higher. Please consider Office vacancy rates in Valley hit record.
    Nearly 1 out of every 4 square feet of Valley office space was vacant [...]

    Finally some CRE news unfortunately it is not the good news we could all use.-Sean

    Commercial real estate vacancies hit nearly 25% in Phoenix Valley area. Scottsdale and Southeast Valley vacancies are even higher. Please consider Office vacancy rates in Valley hit record.

    Nearly 1 out of every 4 square feet of Valley office space was vacant in the third quarter ending Sept. 30, commercial-real-estate experts said.

    That’s about 28 million square feet of empty space, according to Phoenix commercial-realty brokerage Colliers International, one of several Valley firms tracking the progress of sales and the leasing of office, industrial and retail buildings.

    Within the next few months, about 2 million more square feet of office space will open, and less than 20 percent of it has been reported as spoken for by a future tenant.

    One of the soon-to-open buildings, the 400,000-square-foot One Central Park East office tower in downtown Phoenix [at left], has yet to announce a lease agreement despite plans to open by the end of the year.

    “Actually, leasing agents are optimistic,” said Broker Mindy Korth of Phoenix-based CB Richard Ellis.

    Korth said One Central Park is a desirable location that ultimately will find its audience. But she agreed with other experts that the high prices paid by companies such as One Central Park developer Mesirow Financial Real Estate Inc. could make it difficult to pay the bills, based on today’s lower lease rates.

    More than 2,200 commercial properties in Maricopa County have received 90-day foreclosure notices since Jan. 1, representing more than $7 billion in real-estate loans on which the borrowers have failed to make payments.

    Valley Vacancies

    • Overall vacancies – 24.2 percent
    • Scottsdale vacancies – 29.1 percent
    • Downtown Phoenix vacancies – 15.7 percent
    • Southeast Valley vacancies – 30.5 percent

    Musical Chairs, With “Desirable Chairs” Added Each Round

    Arizona leasing agents are optimistic because the “real-estate crash positions Phoenix as an attractive relocation area for companies in more expensive states, such as California“.

    Let’s assume for a moment that businesses transfer to Arizona from California. What would that do to California jobs and California commercial real estate prices? How many tax breaks will Phoenix give to get corporations to relocate? Will California, Illinois, New York, and other places quietly let businesses leave?

    Without new business expansion, this setup is nothing more than a game of musical chairs except no chairs are ever removed. Instead so-called “desirable chairs” like One Central Park are added every round, not just in Phoenix, but Miami, Chicago, Portland, San Diego, and countless other places.

    Do the math. Musical chairs in reverse is not a viable economic model.

    “If you build it, they will come” cannot possibly work unless the number of players increases faster than the number of chairs. The reverse is happening. More chairs are added each month than participants in the game.

    Bundle of Joy

    I have good news to report tonight. Someone has finally seen me for the joyful optimist that I am.

    In Real Estate Strikes Back Planet Yelnick notes: “Mish was a bundle of joy today, also reporting that rents have fallen for the first time in 17 years, and that new FHA rules make condos utterly worthless.”

    “Bundle of Joy” was the title of Thursday’s Podcast on HoweStreet.
    Forget all that gloom’n'doom stuff, Mish has some GOOD news…rents are falling!

    Please click on the link and listen in.

    Phil Mackesy and I discussed housing in Vancouver, falling rents in the US, and what it’s like to be under the lights for Three Yahoo Tech Tickers: Deflation, Gold, Stock Market.

    Residential rents are indeed falling, as are corporate lease rates. And with this game of musical chairs, commercial real estate lease rates are sure to continue falling for quite some time.
    Source Article

    Tax assessors cry foul over property transfers

    Oct 12, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

    This, unfortunately, I do is a good step for a property owner.  In the past I have seen the state and local municipalities step up and re-assess a building when a partner was bought out thereby raising our property tax basis, after all it is a transfer albeit to the remaining partners.  We were not [...]

    This, unfortunately, I do is a good step for a property owner.  In the past I have seen the state and local municipalities step up and re-assess a building when a partner was bought out thereby raising our property tax basis, after all it is a transfer albeit to the remaining partners.  We were not happy as the remaining partners did not receive the benefit the state did.  Live by the sword die by the sword.  California take notice this is the wave of tactics we will see.-Sean

    SACRAMENTO – County assessors are increasingly worried that the historic drop in property values in the Inland area and around the state will turn out to be more than just a temporary blow to government coffers.

    Millions of properties statewide have been temporarily reassessed to reflect their lower market value. Under state law, property owners will pay reduced taxes until the market recovers and the property returns to its base value.

    But assessors and other tax officials say there are signs that some property owners are going a step further: using back-and-forth ownership transfers to trigger a property reassessment and lock in a much lower level of property taxes.

    Read More » »

    FHA Shortfall Seen at $54 Billion May Lead to Bailout

    Oct 8, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

    Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Housing Administration, which insures mortgages with low down payments, may require a U.S. bailout because of $54 billion more in losses than it can withstand, a former Fannie Mae executive said.
    “It appears destined for a taxpayer bailout in the next 24 to 36 months,” consultant Edward Pinto said in [...]

    Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Housing Administration, which insures mortgages with low down payments, may require a U.S. bailout because of $54 billion more in losses than it can withstand, a former Fannie Mae executive said.

    “It appears destined for a taxpayer bailout in the next 24 to 36 months,” consultant Edward Pinto said in testimony prepared for a House committee hearing in Washington today. Pinto was the chief credit officer from 1987 to 1989 for Fannie Mae, the mortgage-finance company that is now government-run.

    The FHA program’s volumes have quadrupled since 2006 as private lenders and insurers pulled back amid the U.S. housing slump, Pinto said. The jump has left the agency backing risky loans and exposed to fraud in a “market where prices have yet to stabilize,” he said.

    Representative Scott Garrett, a New Jersey Republican, introduced legislation this month to boost the FHA’s minimum down payment to 5 percent from 3.5 percent to help shore up the agency’s insurance fund, a move that could add to the housing market’s burdens as it struggles to recover.

    Read More » »

    The Housing Tax Credit: NAHB Projections and more

    Oct 7, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

    Its hard not to feel like the store is being robbed right in front of our eyes as the hand outs keep coming.  In the words of a friend “when, and ever, are we going to receive some hand outs?”  I don’t have any tarp funds nor have I ever so I am not going to [...]

    Its hard not to feel like the store is being robbed right in front of our eyes as the hand outs keep coming.  In the words of a friend “when, and ever, are we going to receive some hand outs?”  I don’t have any tarp funds nor have I ever so I am not going to hold my breath.  -Sean

     
    by CalculatedRisk on 10/07/2009 04:02:00 PM

    From the NAHB:

    Extending the credit through Nov. 30, 2010 and making it available to all purchasers of a principal residence would result in an additional 383,000 home sales

    The NAHB has also been arguing to expand the tax credit from $8,000 to $15,000. But using $8,000 per home buyer – and estimating 5 million home sales over the next year – the total cost of the tax credit would be $40 billion.

    According to the NAHB this would result in 383,000 additional home sales. Dividing $40 billion by 383 thousand gives $104,400 per additional home sold!

    That is higher than my original estimate that an extension of the tax credit would cost about $100 thousand per additional home sold.

    Note: If the NAHB meant $15,000 per home buyer, the cost would be $75 billion – or $157 thousand per additional home sold.

    And this doesn’t included the costs of the unintended consequences.

  • The tax credit is simply motivating some renters to become homeowners (not reducing the overall number of excess housing units). This is pushing up the vacancy rent, pushing down rents and leading to more commercial real estate (CRE) defaults and foreclosures – and will lead to more losses for lenders. The additional defaults associated with lower rents will probably be higher than the cost of the tax credit. From the WSJ: Fed Frets About Commercial Real Estate

    [Fed economist] Mr. Conway’s presentation painted a bleak picture of the sliding real-estate values and enormous debt that will need to be refinanced in the next few years. Vacancy rates in the apartment, retail and warehouse sectors already have exceeded those seen during the real-estate collapse of the early 1990s, Mr. Conway noted. His report also predicted that commercial real-estate losses would reach roughly 45% next year. Valuing real estate has always been tricky for banks, and the problem is particularly acute now because sales activity is practically nonexistent.

    More than half of the $3.4 trillion in outstanding commercial real-estate debt is held by banks.

  • Motivating some renters to become homeowners has increased demand at the low end and pushed up house prices (more demand). However when the tax credit eventually ends (it will someday), the price-to-rent ratio will equalize, applying downward pressure on home prices.
  • Many of the additional sales in 2009 were to buyers who used the tax credit as their downpayment. These were marginal buyers who haven’t proven the ability to manage their finances and save for a down payment. The default rates will probably be higher for these buyers than for other buyers.
  • The housing tax credit raises the risk of deflation. Falling rents will probably already push core CPI close to zero in 2010. An extension of the housing tax credit will probably push rents down further (as those 383,000 additional home buyers move from renting to owning), and that will probably mean core CPI will be negative in 2010. Not only will this impact any program adjusted by CPI (like Social Security), but this could lead to a deflationary mentality for consumers – with consumers holding off purchases waiting for lower prices.
  • Anyone analyzing the tax credit should call the economists at the BLS and ask about how falling rents will impact owners’ equivalent rent and CPI. Then call the economists at the Federal Reserve and ask how CPI deflation will impact consumer behavior and monetary policy. Welcome to the Fed’s nightmare.

    « Older Entries