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Home Tax Credit a Costly Failure

Apr 28, 2010 | No Comments | Sean Mills

From David Kocieniewski at the NY Times: Home Tax Credit Called Successful, but Costly
Though the Treasury Department and the real estate industry have termed the program a success, helping 1.8 million people buy homes, many tax policy experts say it has been singularly cost-ineffective: most of the $12.6 billion in credits through end of [...]

From David Kocieniewski at the NY Times: Home Tax Credit Called Successful, but Costly

Though the Treasury Department and the real estate industry have termed the program a success, helping 1.8 million people buy homes, many tax policy experts say it has been singularly cost-ineffective: most of the $12.6 billion in credits through end of February was collected by people who would have bought homes anyway or who in some cases were not even eligible.

There is no question this program was very costly. And why is the Treasury confusing activity with accomplishment? Sure sales briefly surged, but were new households formed? How many new jobs were created?

“We were happy in our apartment, but $8,000 was just too much to pass up,” said [Mr. James Green, a student at Purdue University], 29, who shopped furiously with his wife for two months before signing a contract in March to buy a three-bedroom ranch.

“We bid on a couple places that didn’t work out,” he said, “but we always made sure we had a backup plan because we didn’t want to miss the deadline for the credit. And when we finally agreed to a contract, it was this huge relief.”

For every home buyer like the Greens, real estate agents say there are at least three others who collected the credit even purchase antibiotics online though they would have bought without it. That means for each new buyer who was truly lured into the market by the credit, the federal government paid more than $30,000.

This is very optimistic – the ratio was probably 5-to-1 for the initial credit and even higher for the extension. But this shows two failures of the tax credit: 1) the high cost, and 2) it was just moving people from apartments to homes and didn’t reduce the excess housing inventory (yes, rentals count as housing inventory too).

“The tax credit helped to stanch the price declines, which had substantial benefit for the entire economy,” said Mark Zandi at Moody’s Economy.com.

And this has been the policy – support asset prices by limiting the supply (all the foreclosure delays), and pushing demand (low mortgage rates and the tax credit). This has helped the banks significantly, and Zandi argues this has boosted confidence. Maybe … but I’m not convinced that supporting house prices above the market clearing level to help the banks and boost consumer confidence makes sense. I think targeting jobs – and therefore household formation – would have been a far more cost effective program.

Source Article

Prices Fell .64 Percent in February, But Gained 1.43 Percent In Last Year

Apr 28, 2010 | No Comments | Sean Mills

I come across so much information in my research and as i have been so busy as of lately I have not posted much of anything.  I will just keep doing it regardless of the feedback.-Sean

Prices fell .64% in February, but increased 1.43% compared to a year earlier, according to new Case Shiller data, with [...]

I come across so much information in my research and as i have been so busy as of lately I have not posted much of anything.  I will just keep doing it regardless of the feedback.-Sean

Prices fell .64% in February, but increased 1.43% compared to a year earlier, according to new Case Shiller data, with the gain representing a significant positive change.

The Case Shiller 10-City Index would fall 7.68% over 12 months if the February fall continued, but the data on the direction of values point in many different directions. Prices for all of 2009 were flat, but have fallen 30% since values peaked in June 2006. The year-over-year increase is a new and positive pattern, but there are many negative trends to consider.

Most analysts for property values (and all assets including stocks) are naturally positive, which calls into question a positive zeitgeist now attached to property values. It is however unambiguously positive that both the 10-City and 20-City index registered a simultaneous annual gain in February — which was last seen in DECEMBER 2006 (more than THREE years ago).

Prices Fell .64 Percent in February, But Gained 1.43 Percent In Last Year

April 27, 2010

by Michael David White

Prices fell .64% in February, but increased 1.43% compared to a year earlier, according to new Case Shiller data, with the gain representing a significant positive change.

The Case Shiller 10-City Index would fall 7.68% over 12 months if the February fall continued, but the data on the direction of values point in many different directions. Prices for all of 2009 were flat, but have fallen 30% since values peaked in June 2006. The year-over-year increase is a new and positive pattern, but there are many negative trends to consider.

Most analysts for property values (and all assets including stocks) are naturally positive, which calls into question a positive zeitgeist now attached to property values. It is however unambiguously positive that both the 10-City and 20-City index registered a simultaneous annual gain in February — which was last seen in DECEMBER 2006 (more than THREE years ago).

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Clouding any and every forecast on property values should be record delinquencies of 15% of all mortgages outstanding, unemployment at just under 10%, and a mortgage market of exceptionally high risk which has been abandoned by all private money sources. About 13.6 million homeowners have no equity or negative equity and therefore have no current wealth to protect by making their mortgage payment. Real estate prices would fall flat on their face without government mortgage money which represents nine of ten new mortgage dollars.

New Observations has previously forecast a fall in values in 2010 of 13 percent based on an average of four major property price indexes. In a separate analysis of a 120-year time series, we forecast a total fall still ahead in the national market of 22% and a total fall from peak-to-trend of 49 percent. Radical government intervention may stop these forecasted falls.

The Case Shiller monthly changes and annual changes for individual cities and for the composite indexes are listed above.

Check Calculated Risk for a good chart of rising and falling property prices and unemployment. Cool charts here on many of the cities covered by Case Shiller. Wall Street Journal on Case Shiller update.

***

PRINT — Prices fell .64% in February, but increased 1.43% compared to a year earlier

Please forward questions, corrections, and reactions to comments below or send me an email. Please send an email if you would like to take out a new mortgage.

Source Article

Freddie Mac: “Potential Large Wave of Foreclosures”

Feb 24, 2010 | No Comments | Sean Mills

Another fine calculated risk article.-Sean

“We start 2010 with some early signs of stabilization in the housing Buy Cipro market, with house prices and home sales likely nearing the bottom sometime in 2010. We expect that low mortgage rates, relatively high affordability and the homebuyer tax credit will help continue to fuel the recovery. Still, [...]

Another fine calculated risk article.-Sean

“We start 2010 with some early signs of stabilization in the housing Buy Cipro market, with house prices and home sales likely nearing the bottom sometime in 2010. We expect that low mortgage rates, relatively high affordability and the homebuyer tax credit will help continue to fuel the recovery. Still, the housing recovery remains fragile, with significant downside risk posed by high unemployment and a potential large wave of foreclosures.”
Freddie Mac Chief Executive Officer Charles E. Haldeman, Jr.

The quote is from the Freddie Mac Q4 earnings release:

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Foreclosure picture bleak, unemployment wreaking havok

Jan 19, 2010 | No Comments | Sean Mills

Does this surprise anyone?  Do you need to be a rocket scientist to figure this out?  I guess you do with all the buy antibiotics without prescription mis-information floating around. -Sean
A record 3 million U.S. homes will be repossessed by lenders this year as high unemployment and depressed home values leave borrowers unable to [...]

Does this surprise anyone?  Do you need to be a rocket scientist to figure this out?  I guess you do with all the buy antibiotics without prescription mis-information floating around. -Sean

A record 3 million U.S. homes will be repossessed by lenders this year as high unemployment and depressed home values leave borrowers unable to make their house payment or sell, according to a RealtyTrac Inc. forecast.

Last year there were 2.82 million foreclosures, the most since RealtyTrac began compiling data in 2005. More than 4.5 million filings are expected this year, including default or auction notices and bank seizures, said Rick Sharga, senior vice president for the seller of default data and forecasts based in Irvine, Calif. There were 3.96 million filings in 2009.

“This will be the peak year, and the main reasons are unemployment and house prices that have stabilized way below mortgage amounts,” Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the University of California’s Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics in Berkeley, said in an interview.

Government and lender efforts to keep people in their homes are failing to relieve the worst foreclosure crisis since the Great Depression. Unemployment was 10 percent in December, unchanged from the previous month, while the so-called underemployment rate that includes part-time workers and discouraged workers rose to 17.3 percent from 17.2 percent, the Labor Department said Jan. 8.

U.S. lenders permanently modified 31,382 mortgages, or 1 percent, of the 4 million loans targeted under the Obama administration’s foreclosure prevention plan through November, the U.S. Treasury Department said last month. Fewer than half of the 3.2 million homeowners estimated as eligible for mortgage relief by the Treasury actually qualify, according to Herb Allison, assistant secretary for financial stability.

“The government doesn’t have their act together on housing,” Rosen said. “They seem to be pussy-footing around. We need a much more robust effort.”

Obama’s loan-modification program is “destined to fail” because it doesn’t confront the problem of negative equity that is driving foreclosures, Laurie Goodman, senior managing director at Amherst Securities Group LP, told Congress Dec. 8. Homeowners with negative equity, where a property is worth less than the loan, have little incentive to keep paying the mortgage and will “strategically default,” Rosen said.

More than 728,000 borrowers have already received an average $550 reduction in monthly payments, giving them “a second chance to stay in their homes,” she said.

An $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit and a $200 billion lifeline to keep mortgage buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac solvent are among the administration’s efforts to date that have supported the housing market, she said.

“Modifications will not be the solution for all homeowners and will not solve the housing crisis alone,” Reilly said.

The number of homeowners with negative equity totaled 10.7 million, or 23 percent, at the end of the third quarter, according to a Nov. 24 report by First American CoreLogic, a Santa Ana, Calif.-based real estate research firm.

Home prices probably fell 13 percent in 2009 to a median of $172,700, following a drop of 9.5 percent the previous year, Walt Molony, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, said in an interview. Prices are down 26 percent from the July 2006 peak.

Defaults among prime borrowers are likely to accelerate, adding to a “huge” inventory of properties that banks possess and haven’t yet put on the market, according to Robert Shiller and Karl Case, who created the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. In September, Goodman estimated that 7 million homes were already in foreclosure or likely to be seized.

The housing market is weighed down by a “a massive supply of delinquent loans” that will end up in foreclosure this year, James Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s chief executive officer, said in a statement Friday.

The end of the government’s tax credit for first-time buyers, scheduled to expire in the spring, and the end of the Federal Reserve’s $1.25 trillion purchase of mortgage bonds, may add to housing woes, Rosen said.

A total of 2,824,674 U.S. properties got at least one foreclosure filing in 2009, a 21 percent jump from the prior year and more than double the number in 2007, RealtyTrac said.

About 2.2 percent of households received a filing last year, according to the company, which sells default data collected from more than 2,200 counties representing 90 percent of the U.S. population.

December filings increased 15 percent from a year earlier to 349,519, the 10th straight month the tally surpassed 300,000. Foreclosures in the fourth quarter jumped 18 percent from the same period in 2008 and fell 7 percent from the third quarter.

Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate for the third straight year in 2009, with more than 10 percent of households receiving at least one filing. December filings fell 22 percent from a year earlier and rose 27 percent from November.

Arizona had the second-highest rate for the year as more than 6 percent of households got a filing. Florida was third at 5.93 percent, followed by California at 4.75 percent and Utah at 2.93 percent, RealtyTrac said.

The other states among the 10 highest rates were Idaho at 2.72 percent, Georgia at 2.68 percent, Michigan at 2.61 percent, Illinois at 2.5 percent and Colorado at 2.37 percent.

source article

Bank of America to release homes

Jan 19, 2010 | No Comments | Sean Mills

Bank of America expects to release about 6,000 foreclosed properties into the Nevada housing market in 2010, or about 500 a month, an executive with the bank said Wednesday.
It’s part of the so-called “phantom inventory” of foreclosed homes being held by banks as they work out loan modifications and negotiate short sales, two of the [...]

Bank of America expects to release about 6,000 foreclosed properties into the Nevada housing market in 2010, or about 500 a month, an executive with the bank said Wednesday.

It’s part of the so-called “phantom inventory” of foreclosed homes being held by banks as they work out loan modifications and negotiate short sales, two of the more desirable alternatives to foreclosure.

Throughout the country, estimates of homes being taken back by Bank of America range from 11,000 to 14,000 a month in the early part of this year to 29,000 to 35,000 by November and December, said John Ciresi, vice president and portfolio manager for Bank of America in Towson, Md.

The system became “clogged” by a voluntary moratorium on foreclosures while banks met the requirements of President Obama’s Making Home Affordable mortgage plan program and by state legislation requiring mediation before banks can start the foreclosure process, Ciresi said at a panel discussion sponsored by the Nevada chapter of the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals.

Some homes are being held back from closing escrow because of Bank of America’s fiduciary relationship with investors, he said.

“Let’s say you have a $120,000 property and you have a $110,000 offer from a cash buyer and a $120,000 offer on a VA loan,” Ciresi said. “Do I take the higher offer and hope financing is approved?”

Adam Fenn, president of Merit Asset Services in Henderson, said there’s talk on Wall Street about a “double-dip recession,” even as some data point to economic recovery. People are frustrated in their efforts to buy a home and there’s not enough capital out there to finance purchases, he said.

“It’s kind of scary,” Fenn said. “When you go for the highest and best offer, you get people bidding too high and the property ends up going back on the market. I think there’s going to be a double-dip in values. They’re going to go up and then come back down.”

Ciresi anticipates a rise in the foreclosure rate in 2010 because 60 percent of loan modifications failed and went into foreclosure. It’s a combination of property devaluation and people losing their jobs, he said.

Bank of America is getting 40,000 new offers a month on short sales, or homes offered for less than the mortgage balance, Ciresi said. It’s a difficult process, he said.

“Try to understand, we don’t have the title in a short sale. That makes it very difficult in a short sale versus an REO (real estate-owned) home,” he said.

Some banks are getting short sales done in as little as 30 days, said Steve Hawks, director of the National Association of Short Sale Professionals. They’re doing “cash for cooperation” deals, giving people $5,000 to leave the home in good condition.

“The average right now is four to six months, but I see an average of 90 days in 2010, except for a few institutions that have to answer to different investors,” Hawks said. “With half the country underwater (owing more than their home is worth), they’re going to make it easier for a short sale.”

He said 22 percent of mortgage defaults were “strategic defaults,” coming on homes that were underwater. Banks need to eliminate the hardship letter for short sales and consider anyone who falls behind on their payment, Hawks said.

ReMax Pros Realtor Tim Kelly Kiernan said the REO inventory in Las Vegas is dwindling, even though 200 homes a day are going into default.

“Where are these homes? Banks are trying to convert some of them to short sales, but they’re holding on to houses in lieu of the market stabilizing and it has,” Kiernan said. “But every trend says there’s a second tsunami coming. These houses are somewhere. They’re not disappearing.”

source article Buy Cipro Online target=”_blank”>reviewjournal.com

Southern California and the MLS myth

Dec 21, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

Many of you that search or browse housing listings know what the MLS is.  This is the Multiple Listing Service provided to realtors and those affiliated with real estate branches.  In the past, the MLS might have been an excellent snapshot of market inventory.  Many sites like Redfin and ZipRealty provide consumers excellent data for [...]

Many of you that search or browse housing listings know what the MLS is.  This is the Multiple Listing Service provided to realtors and those affiliated with real estate branches.  In the past, the MLS might have been an excellent snapshot of market inventory.  Many sites like Redfin and ZipRealty provide consumers excellent data for browsing inventory but they do not cover every city in the country.  For the most part, home buyers and sellers buy antibiotics online have never been so educated on market dynamics.  Then how in the world did this housing bubble happen with so much information?  How was it possible to inflate the California market with Alt-A and option ARM products when so much data was available?

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More homes are poised to hit the market

Dec 21, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

A ’shadow’ inventory of properties close to foreclosure or seized but not yet for sale has been growing.
A supply of 1.7 million homes headed for sale because of foreclosure or delinquency looms over the nation’s housing market, which could dampen progress toward recovery should the Obama administration fail in its efforts to aid struggling homeowners, [...]

A ’shadow’ inventory of properties close to foreclosure or seized but not yet for sale has been growing.

A supply of 1.7 million homes headed for sale because of foreclosure or delinquency looms over the nation’s housing market, which could dampen progress toward recovery should the Obama administration fail in its efforts to aid struggling homeowners, researchers said.

A variety of measures to keep discounted bank-owned properties off the market — including moratoriums on foreclosures by major lenders and federal initiatives aimed at keeping people in their homes with mortgage payments they can afford — has helped increase a backlog of so-called shadow inventory 55% in the year ended Sept. 30, according to a report released Thursday by First American CoreLogic, a Santa Ana-based real estate research firm.

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Las Vegs – More foreclosures on horizon, say analysts

Dec 17, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

A cloud of foreclosures will hang over Las Vegas for at least a couple of more years and median prices will continue to fall in 2010, most likely by double digits, executives from two California-based real estate tracking firms said Tuesday.
About $2.5 trillion in adjustable-rate mortgages are due to reset from July through August 2011, [...]

A cloud of foreclosures will hang over Las Vegas for at least a couple of more years and median prices will continue to fall in 2010, most likely by double digits, executives from two California-based real estate tracking firms said Tuesday.

About $2.5 trillion in adjustable-rate mortgages are due to reset from July through August 2011, a substantial amount of it in places already reeling from the foreclosure crisis, said Rick Sharga, senior vice president of Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac.

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American Dream 2: Default, Then Rent

Dec 15, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

PALMDALE, Calif. — Schoolteacher Shana Richey misses the playroom she decorated with Glamour Girl decals for her daughters. Fireman Jay Fernandez misses the custom putting green he installed in his backyard.
But ever since they quit paying their mortgages and walked away from their homes, they’ve discovered that giving up on the American dream has its [...]

PALMDALE, Calif. — Schoolteacher Shana Richey misses the playroom she decorated with Glamour Girl decals for her daughters. Fireman Jay Fernandez misses the custom putting green he installed in his backyard.

But ever since they quit paying their mortgages and walked away from their homes, they’ve discovered that giving up on the American dream has its benefits.

Both now live on the 3100 block of Club Rancho Drive in Palmdale, where a terrible housing market lets them rent luxurious homes — one with a pool for the kids, the other with a golf-course view — for a fraction of their former monthly payments.

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House Flipping Makes a Comeback

Dec 9, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Four years after the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble, flipping homes is back in fashion.
Jon Mirmelli, a Phoenix real-estate investor, learned late in the morning of Sept. 28 that a never-occupied custom house on the northern fringes of this Phoenix suburb was going up for auction around noon the same day. [...]

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Four years after the collapse of the U.S. housing bubble, flipping homes is back in fashion.

Jon Mirmelli, a Phoenix real-estate investor, learned late in the morning of Sept. 28 that a never-occupied custom house on the northern fringes of this Phoenix suburb was going up for auction around noon the same day. The six-bedroom home, built on a three-acre desert plot, has a kitchen with two dishwashers, four ovens, “antibacterial” copper sinks, and a master “spa” bathroom with space for a flat-screen TV visible from the tub.

The minimum bid, as set by a unit of Citigroup Inc., which had a $1.3 million mortgage on the home, was $379,900. After several minutes of bidding among investors and their representatives, some wearing shorts and flip-flops, Mr. Mirmelli won the home for $486,300. A week later, he agreed to sell it for $690,000 to a woman who moved in this month.

During the housing boom, millions of Americans tried to make money by buying and then quickly reselling new houses and condominiums. That kind of flipping stopped several years ago as home sales stalled amid a surge in foreclosures and curtailed lending.

Now, a different breed of flipper is proliferating: one who seeks bargains at foreclosure auctions. Unlike the boom-time flippers, the latest generation needs cold cash, lots of local-market knowledge and strong nerves.

Investors compete mostly with other full-time professionals who monitor foreclosure auctions at county courthouses across the country. The bidders often haven’t had a chance to inspect the property or determine whether it’s occupied by tenants, who may be hard to evict.

Sometimes “you have half an hour to make a half-million-dollar decision,” says Damon Lines, an executive at PostedProperties.com, a Phoenix firm that provides information to foreclosure investors and bids on their behalf. “That’s something most people can’t or aren’t willing to do.”

In the states where home prices have fallen the most, many local online medicine without prescription real-estate markets are dominated by foreclosed property, dragging down the value of neighboring homes. Barclays Capital estimates that banks and mortgage investors have 639,000 foreclosed homes for sale across the U.S., largely concentrated in Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada. That’s equivalent to more than 10% of expected U.S. home sales this year.

Flippers swoop in at public auctions of foreclosed homes, known as trustee or sheriff sales. In many states, the lender sets the minimum bid, and takes possession of the property only if no one bids more. In the past, the minimum generally was about equal to the mortgage balance due. But in today’s market, in which many home values have dropped far below the loan balance, lenders wouldn’t attract investors if they set the minimum at that level.

So lenders, or the loan-servicing firms that represent banks and investors, are increasingly likely to set the minimum much lower. Their goal is to tempt others to buy the house and spare banks the headaches and costs that come with taking possession.

Sean O’Toole, chief executive officer of ForeclosureRadar.com, a research firm, estimates that in November about 21% of homes sold in trustee sales in California went to investors rather than to a foreclosing lender, up from 6% a year earlier. The trend is similar in some other areas with high foreclosure rates, including Phoenix and Miami.

The advantage of such an outcome for the bank is that it gets money for the property right away, even if it isn’t enough to cover the loan balance due. The bank doesn’t need to make repairs to the home, cover the taxes and insurance, or pay real-estate-agent commissions.

[Letting Go]

The risk for banks is that if they set the minimum bid too low, the home might end up selling for much less than they could reap if they took ownership of it and sold it themselves. But with some 7.5 million U.S. households behind on their mortgage payments or in foreclosure, many lenders are overwhelmed. They’re negotiating with distressed borrowers and figuring out how to sell the growing supply of foreclosed homes.

“The banks are so screwed up,” says Mr. Mirmelli, the Phoenix investor, that they don’t always have a clear idea of the value of the property they are foreclosing on.

To help them set the minimum bid, banks often consult with local real-estate agents and use software that estimates housing values. American Home Mortgage Servicing Inc., which collects payments and handles foreclosures on behalf of banks and loan investors, uses a formula designed to “achieve a fair value for the property and induce third-party bidders,” says Christine Sullivan, a spokeswoman for the Coppell, Texas-based firm.

American Home starts with a broker’s estimate and subtracts the expected costs of taking ownership of the house and selling it. The minimum bid is above the net proceeds American Homes believes it could get by acquiring and selling the property itself, she says.

Outside the Maricopa County court building in downtown Phoenix, trustees, companies that are hired to handle foreclosure auctions, offer as many as 600 or 700 houses every weekday. A typical auction lasts only a few minutes. On a recent afternoon, a few dozen bidders and onlookers were clustered around a trustee employee seated on a lawn chair conducting auctions. He kept track of the bids on a laptop computer perched on one knee.

Many of the bidders are regulars at the sale, bidding for themselves or on behalf of investor clients. “We’re all kind of like a little dysfunctional family,” says Steve Mutsaers, a representative of PostedProperties, who was wearing black sunglasses, a white polo shirt and gray plaid shorts. During the summer, Mr. Mutsaers says, he wears a sombrero to cope with temperatures well above 100 degrees.

People who attend trustee sales here and in other foreclosure hot spots around the nation say the auctions have recently been attracting more bidders. “Properties are getting bid up,” says Hal Feinberg, a Phoenix property investor. “You can still get good deals, but you’ve got to be more patient than you were a year ago.” He and other investors in the Phoenix area say they have been flipping a lot of the homes they buy to Canadians taking advantage of a weak U.S. dollar.

Buying at these auctions is perilous. There are no public viewings, so bidders often can’t know how much damage may have been done inside a house by occupants facing foreclosure. “We’ve seen everything,” says Doug Hopkins, chief executive of PostedProperties. “We’ve seen people pour concrete down the toilets.” Unless they’ve done their homework, bidders also don’t always know whether they’re buying a home subject to a lien from another lender, which can happen in cases where the borrower took out more than one home loan.

Joshua Lott for The Wall Street JournalInvestors in Phoenix gather at one of the 700 auctions that take place here each weekday.

Because of such complexities, many of the bidders are people with experience in the property business. Jon Goodman, a real-estate lawyer in Boulder, Colo., for example, has bought 19 properties so far this year with other investors and sold 11 of them.

In February, the group won an auction for a home in Commerce City, Colo., near Denver, by bidding $142,000. Only afterwards did they discover that the previous owners had stripped the house of a toilet, much of the carpeting and a kitchen range. They replaced the missing items and made other minor improvements, eventually selling the house in May for $209,000. (The loan balance on the house had been $265,663.)

Mr. Goodman says their expenses came to about $24,000, including about $8,000 for real-estate commissions. That left a pretax profit of about $43,000.

The foreclosure auction was handled by American Home Mortgage Servicing. Ms. Sullivan, the spokeswoman for American Home, says the firm believes it didn’t underprice the home and it received “a fair, market-value price for the property.”

In Miami, a group of investors led by Oded M. Kaiser recently bought a condo at auction for $170,000. Two weeks later, they flipped it for $330,000. The loan balance was about $466,000. A spokeswoman for Litton Loan Servicing, which handled the sale on behalf of mortgage investors, declined to comment.

Not all flippers come out on top. Mr. Goodman says one of his legal clients, bidding on his own, unwittingly bought a house that was still subject to a first-lien mortgage. To gain control of the property, the client had to pay off the first mortgage. As a result, says Mr. Goodman, the client, who declined to be named, is likely to have at least a small loss on the deal.

Last summer, Phoenix investor Greg Thielen bought a home at an auction and later found that the former owner had stripped out air-conditioning units, granite countertops and kitchen cabinets, and uprooted palm trees from the lawn. Repair costs came to about $30,000, leaving Mr. Thielen with a small loss on the purchase. “It’s not as easy as people think,” says Mr. Thielen.

James R. Hagerty/The Wall Street JournalInvestor Jon Mirmelli in the kitchen of the Scottsdale home he flipped.

The Scottsdale property bought by Mr. Mirmelli was supposed to be the dream home for Brad and Michelle McCaughey and their three children. Mr. McCaughey, who grew up in Ann Arbor, Mich., was a minor-league hockey player and coach after graduating from the University of Michigan. About nine years ago, having moved to Phoenix, he says he discovered “a passion for real estate.” He became a real-estate agent and began investing with his father and brothers-in-law in rental properties. Soon they had a dozen homes.

In 2005, Mr. McCaughey and his wife paid about $500,000 for three acres of desert land and began building a home. By the time the house was nearing completion in 2008, the family rental-property business was in trouble because financing and other costs were exceeding their income.

The McCaugheys started selling their rental properties and put their own house on the market. They hoped to avert a foreclosure by getting Citigroup to accept a short sale, in which a home is sold for less than the loan balance due. Before they could find a buyer, though, Citigroup foreclosed on the home, and it went up for auction at the Maricopa County Courthouse this past September.

Citigroup initially set the minimum bid at auction at $1.3 million, far more than the market value, given comparable sales in the neighborhood. Then, on the morning of the sale, Citigroup lowered that minimum to $379,900. PostedProperties, which monitors Web sites for such price changes, sent out an email on the opportunity to Mr. Mirmelli.

Mr. Mirmelli has his iPhone set up so he can call up the address of a home due to be auctioned, see a map of the neighborhood with a tap of his finger and then see panoramic photos of the street with another tap. While he researched the home, one of his partners drove out to see the exterior and make sure there were no occupants. A PostedProperties employee bid on their behalf and won the house for $486,300, a sum that then went through the trustee to Citigroup.

After expenses of about $54,000, including real-estate commissions and minor repairs, Mr. Mirmelli and his partners expect a profit of about $150,000 on the flip. “It turned out to be a very good return,” he says.

A spokesman for Citigroup declined to comment on the transaction.

The McCaugheys, who formerly owned the house, are now renting a smaller home. Mr. McCaughey now works for a telecommunications service and is thinking about going back into hockey-related work.

Over a bowl of soup at a Paradise Bakery & Café in Glendale, a suburb of Phoenix, Mr. McCaughey says he sees a lot of real-estate bargains now and may jump back into the market at some point. As for the losses he’s taken on his former holdings, he says: “It is what it is. You deal with it.”

Source article www.wsjonline.com

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