Sep 9, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills
The Federal Reserve’s latest (through July) G19 update is out, showing consumer credit.
To say that these figures are ugly would be an understatement. In fact, there is simply no way you can spin this – while this contraction in credit has to happen it has horrifying implications if our Washington policymakers don’t get on the stick [...]
The Federal Reserve’s latest (through July) G19 update is out, showing consumer credit.
To say that these figures are ugly would be an understatement. In fact, there is simply no way you can spin this – while this contraction in credit has to happen it has horrifying implications if our Washington policymakers don’t get on the stick and deal with the underlying issues here and now instead of pretending that everything is ok or worse, try to “borrow our way to prosperity.”
Let’s start with the “Full Monte”; this is the “de-noised” version of The Fed’s “annualized” rate of change chart (click for a larger version of any of these):
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Sep 9, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills
California is seeing the first evidence of a economic rebound, according to a new study by Comerica Bank.
The bank’s California Economic Activity Index rose three points in July to 99 and is up eight points from a low of 91 in March.
July’s online drugs without prescription showing was just one point below the year-ago [...]
California is seeing the first evidence of a economic rebound, according to a new study by Comerica Bank.
The bank’s California Economic Activity Index rose three points in July to 99 and is up eight points from a low of 91 in March.
July’s online drugs without prescription showing was just one point below the year-ago level of 100. The index has been averaging six points below that level for all of 2008. (Click on image to enlarge.)
Source: Comerica Bank
“The California economy has begun to rebound over the last several months with six of the nine components of our Index contributing positively,” said Dana Johnson, Comerica’s chief economist. “Sales tax revenues, which so far have been the biggest contributor to the rebound in our Index, may flatten out in upcoming months, thereby reversing some of the recent strength. I will become much more confident that a sustainable recovery is underway once I begin to see employment gains also contributing to the rise of our Index.”
The Comerica California Economic Activity Index equally weights nine seasonally-adjusted indicators that reflect activity in the manufacturing, tourism, travel and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays.
Manufacturing activity is measured by shipments in the electronic parts and accessories industry. Vehicle miles traveled along California highways, state-level hotel occupancy rates and air traffic data collected from the state’s major airports measure tourism and travel.
Trade is represented by state exports and container shipments at the largest port. Job growth is captured both by overall employment and by insured unemployment claims rolls. Retail sales activity is expressed in terms of state sales tax revenues.
Read more about the index HERE.
Source: The Orange County Register
Sep 9, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills
I have been reading lately about foreign investors, China specifically, had been quietly looking at buying up distressed commercial real estate to take advantage of the falling dollar and crumbling CRE markets. Funny that the Fed’s rescue program, PPIP, is being considered for the acquisitions. With all the REIT fundraising for distressed assets [...]
I have been reading lately about foreign investors, China specifically, had been quietly looking at buying up distressed commercial real estate to take advantage of the falling dollar and crumbling CRE markets. Funny that the Fed’s rescue program, PPIP, is being considered for the acquisitions. With all the REIT fundraising for distressed assets the speculation was China would funnel their money into those coiffures.-Sean
China’s $300 billion sovereign-wealth fund is eyeing big investments in distressed U.S. real estate, according to people familiar with the matter. To finance some of the deals, China may rely on an old trading partner: the U.S. government.
In recent weeks, officials from China Investment Corp. have held talks with U.S. private-equity fund managers, including BlackRock Inc., Invesco Ltd. and Lone Star Funds, about potential investments in beaten-down property assets, namely mortgage securities backed by office buildings, hotels, strip malls and other commercial property. CIC also is considering buying ownership interests in buildings, according to the people with knowledge of the matter.
In addition, CIC is weighing investing through one of the U.S. government’s bailout programs, the Treasury’s Public-Private Investment Program, known as PPIP. The program is designed to rid banks of toxic mortgage securities by enticing investors to buy these assets with financing from the U.S. government.
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Sep 9, 2009 | No Comments | Sean Mills
New York Times article highlights the pain which is still on the horizon for real estate and the economy. Worth the time just to skim this.-Sean
Edward and Maria Moller are worried about losing their house — not now, but in 2013.
The New York Times
Edward and Maria Moller and their son, Isaac, at their [...]
New York Times article highlights the pain which is still on the horizon for real estate and the economy. Worth the time just to skim this.-Sean
Edward and Maria Moller are worried about losing their house — not now, but in 2013.
Edward and Maria Moller and their son, Isaac, at their La Mesa, Calif., home, which was financed with an interest-only loan.
That is when the suburban San Diego schoolteachers will see their mortgage payments jump, most likely beyond their ability to pay.
Like millions of buyers during the boom, the Mollers leveraged their way into a house they could not otherwise afford by taking out a loan that required them to make only interest payments at first, putting off payments on the principal for several years.
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